???? 据OE网站2月23日报道，据伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）称，尽管目前海上浮式风力发电装机发电量较低，但它仍可能成为亚太地区风电开发的下一个前沿领域，几乎具有无限的潜力。如果算上早期规划阶段的项目，该领域的总投资可能达到580亿美元。

????一个重要的海上浮式(风能)技术市场正在亚洲崛起。日本、韩国开发商已经宣布了开发关键示范项目的计划，尽管与传统的固底技术相比，其部署规模仍然有限。

????亚太地区目前预计新增海上风电装机发电量为26吉瓦，海上浮式风电装机发电量仅占6%。

????伍德麦肯兹的首席分析师罗伯特·劳（Robert Liew）表示，在日本，韩国，这1.56吉瓦的新增海上浮式发电量将需要至少80亿美元的投资。如果我们考虑在早期规划阶段增加的9吉瓦项目管道， 总投资机会价值可能高达580亿美元。

????伍德麦肯兹称，由于传统火力发电厂的项目寿命即将结束，并且新建煤炭和核能的机会受到严重限制，因此对于这些市场而言，保持电力供应是一项关键挑战。 东北亚的三个市场在2020年至2030年期间将面临总计89吉瓦的热电和核电退役计划。

????Liew表示，这些市场中的政府越来越希望使用可再生能源来填补供应缺口，但是由于土地的限制，可扩展的选择受到了限制。 浮式海上风电开始受到越来越多的关注，但是高昂的成本仍然是广泛采用该技术的主要障碍。为了确保海上浮式风电的长期可持续性，价格必须大幅下降，至少与新建天然气发电比具有竞争力。

????由于历史记录有限，只有21兆瓦(MW)的浮式示范机组运行，因此亚太市场的项目成本存在很大的不确定性。目前，日本政府估计，目前海上浮式资本支出成本可能高达1000万美元/兆瓦，但如果降低到400万美元/兆瓦，则在商业上是可行的，而接地海上资本支出成本为2-3美元。 到2030年，亚太陆上风电资本支出的平均成本为150万美元/兆瓦。

????郝芬 译自 OE

????原文如下：

????Floating Offshore Wind: The Next Big Thing for Asia Pacific?

????Floating offshore wind, despite the currently low installed capacity, could be the next frontier in wind power development in the Asia Pacific with almost limitless potential, says Wood Mackenzie, adding the total investment in the sector could be worth US$58 billion, counting the projects in the early planning stages.

????"A significant market for floating offshore [wind] technology is emerging in Asia. Developers in Japan, South Korea and have announced plans to develop key demonstration projects, although the scale of deployment is still limited compared to conventional fixed-bottom technology."

????Floating offshore wind accounts for just 6% capacity of the 26 gigawatts (GW) of new offshore capacity expected in the current decade in the Asia Pacific.

????Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst Robert Liew said: "This 1.56 GW of new floating offshore capacity in Japan, South Korea, and will require investments of at least US$8 billion. If we consider the additional 9 GW project pipeline in early planning stages, total investment opportunities could be worth up to US$58 billion."

????Maintaining power supply is a key challenge for these markets as legacy thermal plants reach the end of their project life and opportunity for new-build coal and nuclear are severely limited, Wood Mackenzie said. The three Northeast Asian markets face projected thermal and nuclear capacity retirements totaling 89 GW from 2020 to 2030.

????Liew said: “Governments in these markets are increasingly looking to renewables to fill the supply gap, but due to land constraints, scalable options are limited. Floating offshore wind is starting to gain more attention but the high cost remains a major barrier to widespread adoption of this technology.

????“To ensure the long-term sustainability of floating offshore wind, prices must come down significantly to at least be competitive with new-build gas power.”

????With a limited track record and only 21 megawatts (MW) of operating floating demonstration units, there is high uncertainty over project costs in Asia Pacific markets. For now, the Japanese government estimates that current capex costs of floating offshore can be as high as U$10 million per MW but could be commercially feasible if brought down to US$4 million/MW, compared to grounded offshore capex cost of US$2-3 million/MW and average Asia Pacific onshore wind capex cost of US$1.5 million/MW by 2030.