据Oil & Gas Journal网站5月13日消息 国际能源署（IEA）分析称，原油价格上涨尚未引发美国页岩油反弹。

　　由于业务周期短，美国页岩油行业以其对价格信号的快速反应能力而闻名，这种情况在2020年第二季度COVID-19疫情之初再次出现，当时市场崩溃导致运营商停产130万桶/日，并将年度资本预算平均削减50%以上。

　　然而，今年尽管WTI价格已升至疫情前的60美元/桶以上，但国际能源机构预测，美国页岩油仅会小幅上涨。2021年的出口量将为730万桶/日，比2020年初的水平低了近100万桶/日。

　　IEA表示：“自2014-2015年价格暴跌以来，越来越多的美国页岩油运营商将重点放在资本纪律和回报股东上，而不是实现产量增长的雄心壮志上。虽然在降低成本方面取得了相当大的成功，但运营商往往无法抵制增加活动和产量，以利用价格上涨的机会。2021年4月，陆地钻机数量为423台（EIA DPR），高于2020年8月的最低点236台，但仍比2020年第一季度平均值762台（当时WTI为57美元/桶，与2021年第一季度平均价格基本持平）低339台。”

　　2020年第四季度，当公司设定2021年资本和生产目标时，油价平均比2021年第一季度低15美元/桶（35%）。尽管如此，在第一季度财报电话会议上，各大巨头对此前公司层面的指导意见几乎没有改变。就美国而言，雪佛龙预计其二叠纪盆地产量今年下降5%，而埃克森美孚仅将其美国产量预测上调了3.75%，这是在不增加计划支出的情况下实现。雷普索尔是美国上游投资增长10%的例外（集团预算不变，只是重新分配），但由于该公司试图降低碳排放强度，该公司专注于天然气业务。与此同时，IEA追踪的美国重点独立人士组成的同行团体集体几乎未调整计划。投资将同比增长5%，但仍将比2019年支出低48%，生产将比2020年水平低3%。

　　王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Higher prices yet to trigger rebound in US shale

　　Higher crude oil prices have yet to trigger rebound in US shale oil, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis.

　　The US shale oil industry has become renowned for its ability to respond swiftly to price signals, thanks to the short-cycle nature of operations. This was seen again at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in second-quarter 2020 when the market crash caused operators to shut in 1.3 million b/d of production and slash annual capital budgets by over 50% (on average).

　　However, this year, despite WTI prices having risen to pre-pandemic levels above $60/bbl, IEA forecasts US shale oil to increase only modestly and reach a 2021 exit rate of 7.3 million b/d. This is almost 1 million b/d below early 2020 levels.

　　“Since the 2014-15 price crash, more and more of the US shale operators have focused on capital discipline and rewarding shareholders ahead of production growth ambitions. While there has been considerable success in driving down costs, operators have often been unable to resist increasing activity and production to take advantage of higher prices. Until now. In April 2021, the land rig count stood at 423 (EIA DPR), higher than the nadir of 236 in August 2020, but still 339 below the 2020 first quarter average of 762 when WTI was $57/bbl, much the same as the 2021 first quarter average price,” IEA said.

　　In fourth-quarter 2020, when companies set 2021 capital and production targets, oil prices averaged $15/bbl (35%) lower than first-quarter 2021. Despite this, in first-quarter earnings calls, the majors made little changes to previous company-level guidance. In relation to the US, Chevron sees its Permian basin volumes declining 5% this year while Exxon made only a 3.75% upward revision to its US production forecast. This is to be achieved without higher planned spend. Repsol is the outlier with a 10% rise in US upstream investment (group budget is unchanged, just reallocated), but focused on gas plays as the company tries to reduce activity carbon intensity. Meanwhile, the IEA-tracked peer group of US-focused independents has collectively left plans almost untouched. Investment will rise 5% y-o-y, but will remain 48% below 2019 spend, and production will hold 3% below 2020 levels.

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