据能源世界网5月20日新德里报道，据伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）的一份新报告称，能源转型为上游油气行业价值14万亿美元的资产带来不确定性。

　　石油需求可能还会继续增长10年或更久。另一方面，如果世界各国采取果断行动，到2050年将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，石油需求和价格将在本十年后期迅速下降。

　　据伍德麦肯兹估计，上游行业未来的税前估值将达到惊人的14万亿美元，从9万亿-23万亿美元不等。在税后的基础上，运营商的经济租金份额从3万亿-9万亿美元不等。

　　伍德麦肯兹的副总裁弗雷泽·麦凯表示，该行业如今发现自己必须向一个未来需求和价格都高度不确定的世界供应石油和天然气。各种可能的结果令人眼花缭乱。但在未来几十年里，世界仍将需要石油和天然气供应，该行业的规模仍将巨大。

　　随着油气行业的宏观环境日益严峻，交付和规范对上游价值链的各个方面都至关重要。该报告称，与预算和时间表相比，自上次经济低迷以来，业绩显著改善。

　　该行业需要继续坚持不懈地提高效率，降低成本，完美地交付项目。油气公司需要向股东发出一个强烈的信号，即它们可以成为可靠的资本管理者。

　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下：

　　Energy transition brings $14 trillion uncertainty for upstream oil and gas: WoodMac

　　The energy transition represents $14 trillion worth of uncertainty for upstream oil and gas, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie.

　　Oil demand may continue to grow for another decade or more. On the other hand, if the world acts decisively to limit global warming to 2 Degree Celsius by 2050 oil demand and prices would fall rapidly later this decade.

　　Wood Mackenzie estimates the range of pre-tax future valuations for upstream is a staggering $14 trillion – from $9 trillion to $23 trillion. On a post-tax basis, operators’ share of this economic rent ranges from $3 trillion to $9 trillion.

　　“The industry now finds itself having to supply oil and gas to a world in which future demand – and price – are highly uncertain. The range of possible outcomes is dizzying. But the world will still need oil and gas supply for decades to come, and the scale of the industry will remain enormous,” WoodMac vice president Fraser McKay said.

　　Delivery and discipline are paramount in all aspects of the upstream value chain as the macro environment for oil and gas gets tougher. Performance against budgets and timelines has improved dramatically since the last downturn, the report said.

　　The industry needs to remain relentless in its push to improve efficiency, drive down costs and deliver projects flawlessly. Oil and gas companies need to send a strong signal to stakeholders that they can be reliable stewards of capital.

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