据ICIS-MRC网站6月28日莫斯科报道，据路透社报道，受全球制造业和货运的强劲扩张以及主要经济体逐渐重新开放的推动，全球石油消费量将在2022年第一季度恢复到大流行前的水平。

　　矿工、制造商、航运和卡车运输公司以及私人驾车的消费量激增，预计将抵消客运航空检疫限制导致的航空燃油消耗量的持续减少。

　　根据美国能源信息署 (EIA) 的数据显示，预计到 2022 年 3 月，全球液体燃料日消耗量（包括生物燃料）将达到1.006 亿桶。

　　这将是自疫情爆发以来，消费量首次超过2019年同期水平。

　　在2020年4月疫情最严重和封锁最严重的时候，全球石油消费量下降了近20%，即2000万桶/天之后，将在不到两年的时间内反弹。经济活动和石油消费的显著复苏主要是由于欧洲和北美迅速部署了有效疫苗以及和亚洲其他地区实行了严格的检疫控制措施。

　　在较富裕的经济体中，超低利率、史无前例的政府支出以及对企业和家庭的慷慨支持，也帮助石油市场的复苏速度远远快于疫情最严重时的水平。

　　但在冠状病毒爆发之前的五年中，全球消费量以略高于 1% 或每年略高于100 万桶/天的年增长率增长。即使在预期的强劲反弹之后，预计到 2022 年底全球消费量仍将比疫情前的趋势低2% 以上或200 万桶/日。

　　郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Global crude oil consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2022

　　Global oil consumption is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2022, driven by a strong expansion in global manufacturing and freight transport as well as the gradual re-opening of major economies, reported Reuters.

　　Booming consumption from miners, manufacturers, shipping and trucking firms, as well as private motorists, is expected to offset the continued loss of jet fuel consumption from quarantine restrictions on passenger aviation.

　　Global liquids consumption (including biofuels) is forecast to reach 100.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

　　For the first time since the onset of the epidemic, consumption will surpass the level for the corresponding month in 2019.

　　Global consumption will have bounced back in less than two years, after falling by almost 20% or 20 million bpd at the worst point of the epidemic and lockdowns in April 2020. The remarkable recovery in economic activity and oil consumption is mostly the result of a rapid deployment of effective vaccines in Europe and North America and strict quarantine controls in other parts of Asia.

　　In wealthier economies, ultra-low interest rates, unprecedented government spending, and generous support for businesses and households have also helped heal the oil market far quicker than seemed likely at the height of the epidemic.

　　But in the five years before the coronavirus, global consumption was growing at an annual rate of just over 1% or a little over 1 million b/d per year. Even after the expected strong rebound, global consumption is still expected to be more than 2% or 2 million b/d below its pre-epidemic trend at the end of 2022.

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