据世界石油7月1日消息，随着需求的持续反弹，美国原油库存正在以数十年来最快的速度下降，这推动了石油期货市场的反弹。

　　在过去四周，包括战略石油储备在内的总库存以每日115万桶的速度下降，创下了自1982年以来美国能源信息署（EIA）数据滚动计算的最大四周降幅。

　　与此同时，纽约商品交易所周三价差反弹，9月份西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货合约本月第二次约较10月份的价差升至1美元/桶，表明市场预期今年夏季原油供应将持续紧张。

　　欧佩克及其盟国将于周四举行重要会议，讨论增产的可能性。在此之前，创纪录的减产速度凸显了美国石油需求复苏的力度。

　　随着美国摆脱数月的封锁，越来越多的美国人有了公路和航空出行需求。为了满足需求，炼油商将原油加工提高到了疫情爆发前的水平。本月早些时候，美国人口最多的加州重启经济，纽约州则取消了大部分限制措施。

　　与此同时，美国钻探商对油价的反应一直比较缓慢。今年迄今为止，油价已上涨逾50%。美国国内原油产量目前较去年年初的峰值水平低约15%。

　　WTI期货交割点俄克拉荷马州库欣的库存水平进一步支撑了所谓的时间间隔。该中心的库存处于一年多来的最低水平。分析师估计，交易员押注到今年夏末，供应量将跌至多年来的低点。

　　本月前，自2018年以来，第二月和第三月WTI合约的价差从未超过每桶1美元。

　　尽管从亚洲和欧洲的疫情危机中复苏并不顺利，但海外对美国原油的兴趣也一直在上升。尽管WTI价格反弹令其与全球基准布伦特原油的价差收窄至每桶不到2美元，美国原油出口依然强劲。

　　全球供应形势看来仍将吃紧，在需求不确定性很大的情况下，欧佩克及其盟国仍未就多少关井原油可以重返市场达成共识。这使得部长们之间的初步谈判推迟了一天，以便在周四的讨论之前有更多的时间达成妥协。国际能源署(IEA)警告称，除非该组织迅速采取行动增加原油供应，否则今年下半年将出现供应短缺。

　　裘寅 编译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. crude inventories depleting at record pace on surging oil demand

　　Crude inventories in the U.S. are falling at the fastest rate in decades as demand continues to rebound, prompting a rally in the oil futures market.

　　Over the last four weeks total stockpiles, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen at a rate of 1.15 million barrels a day, marking the largest four-week decline on a rolling basis in Energy Information Administration Data going back to 1982.

　　Meanwhile, Nymex calendar spreads rallied Wednesday, with the September West Texas Intermediate futures contract rising to $1 a barrel premium over October for the second time this month, pointing to expectations for ongoing supply tightness through the summer.

　　The record rate of drawdowns underscore the strength of the U.S. oil demand recovery just ahead of a critical meeting between OPEC and its allies on Thursday to debate a potential output increase.

　　Americans are taking to the roads and skies at increasing numbers as the country emerges from months of lockdowns. To meet demand, oil refiners boosted crude processing to levels only seen before the pandemic. Earlier this month, California, America’s most populous state, re-opened its economy, while New York ended most of its curbs.

　　At the same time U.S. drillers have been slow to respond to the oil prices, which are up more than 50% so far this year. Domestic crude production is holding at roughly 15% below peak levels seen early last year.

　　Further supporting the so-called timespreads are stockpile levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures. Inventories in the hub are at the lowest levels in over a year.

　　Analysts are estimating and traders are betting that supplies will drop to multi-year lows by the end of the summer.

　　Prior to this month, the spread between the second month and third month WTI contracts hadn’t exceeded $1 a barrel since 2018.

　　Overseas interest in American crude has also been climbing despite a bumpy recovery from the health crisis in Asia and Europe. Exports of U.S. crude remain strong even as rallies in WTI have narrowed its spread to less than $2 a barrel relative to global benchmark Brent.

　　The global supply situation looks set to remain tight as OPEC and its allies have yet to come to a consensus on how much shut-in oil to return to the market at a time when there is much demand uncertainty. That has delayed preliminary talks between ministers by a day to allow more time for a compromise before Thursday’s discussion. The International Energy Agency has warned of supply deficits in the second half of this year unless the group acts fast to add more crude.

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