据油价网7月13日消息：根据能源信息署(EIA)的数据，8月美国页岩油产量将小幅增加4.2万桶/天。

　　EIA在其最新的钻井产能报告中预测，几乎所有增加的产量都将来自二叠纪盆地，达到5.2万桶/天。阿巴拉契亚盆地的产量也将增加2000桶/天。与此同时，除Haynesville外，其余页岩区块的产量将下降1.3万桶/天。海恩斯维尔的产量本月仍将持平。

　　这一温和的预测增长将推动美国8月份页岩油总产量达到790万桶/天，与大流行前美国页岩盆地的产量仍有很大差距，因为页岩钻探商对油价的突然波动仍持谨慎态度。

　　然而，这种谨慎态度对一些页岩生产商开了个坏玩笑。这些公司在油价开始回升后不久就对冲了2021年的产量，最终因为对冲太早而亏损。许多人没有对冲，但那些进行对冲的人现在没有动力提高产量，因为这意味着在他们过早的对冲中损失更多的钱。

　　据Rystad Energy称，美国页岩油产量恢复缓慢还有另一个纯粹的技术原因。该能源咨询公司表示，目前大多数美国页岩生产商都在提高已钻但尚未完工的油井产量。为了更有效地提高产量，他们需要钻更多的新井。

　　Rystad页岩研究主管Artem Abramov表示:“即使美国页岩行业希望增产，从价格信号到重大产量影响所需的时间至少是9个月，包括作出投资决定所需的时间，从开钻到压裂结束所需的时间，再加上从压裂结束到产量峰值的最后阶段。”

　　冯娟 摘译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Permian To Drive U.S. Shale Production Increase In August

　　U.S. shale oil production will increase by a modest 42,000 bpd in August, according to the Energy Information Administration.

　　In its latest Drilling Productivity Report, the EIA forecast that almost all of this production increase will come from the Permian, at 52,000 bpd. Production in the Appalachia Basin will also increase, by 2,000 bpd. At the same time, the EIA said, production across the rest of the shale plays, excluding Haynesville, will decline by a combined 13,000 bpd. Production at Haynesville will remain flat on the month.

　　This modest forecast increase would push total U.S. shale oil output to 7.9 million bpd in August, still a far cry from what the U.S. shale basins were producing before the pandemic as shale drillers remain cautious of sudden price swings in the price of oil.

　　This cautiousness played a bad joke on some shale producers, however. These companies hedged their 2021 production soon after oil prices began recovering, eventually losing money because they hedged too early. Many did not hedge, but those who did now have less motivation to boost production as this would effectively mean losing more money on their premature hedges.

　　According to Rystad Energy, there is also another purely technical reason why U.S. shale oil production is slow to come back. Currently, the energy consultancy said, most U.S. shale producers are boosting production from drilled but uncompleted wells. For a more meaningful ramp-up of production, they would need to drill more new wells.

　　“Even if the US shale industry wanted to produce more, the time required from a price signal to a significant production impact is at least nine months, including the time it takes to make an investment decision, the months needed from spud to frac end, plus the last stage from frac end to peak production,” said Artem Abramov, Rystad’s head of shale research.

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