据油价网2021年7月19日报道，供需基本面的改善促使瑞士信贷上调了其对油价的短期和长期预估，瑞士信贷预计今年布伦特原油均价为每桶70美元，高于稍早预估的每桶66.50美元。

　　财经网站Forexlive援引瑞士信贷的一份报告称，明年布伦特原油的平均价格将达到每桶69美元，高于该行此前预期的每桶68美元。

　　瑞士信贷对布伦特原油的长期预测也从每桶60美元上调至62美元。

　　瑞士信贷还把其对美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油的今年平均价格预估上调到了每桶67美元，高于此前预估的每桶62美元。 这家瑞士银行表示，明年西德克萨斯中质原油的平均价格将达到每桶66美元，高于此前预期的每桶63美元。

　　从长期来看，西德克萨斯中质原油的平均价格将为每桶59美元，而此前的预测为每桶55美元。

　　瑞士信贷上调油价预测的主要原因是供需基本面的持续改善。

　　瑞士信贷称，需求继续出人意料地上升，而欧佩克+和美国页岩盆地在增加市场供应方面继续保持克制，表现出严格的纪律。

　　这家瑞士银行指出，全球范围内，今年下半年原油库存将继续下降，这将支撑原油价格上涨。

　　今年，尽管油价大幅上涨，但美国页岩在钻井支出方面仍保持纪律，选择将创纪录的现金流更多地用于减少债务和回报股东。

　　欧佩克+上周日刚刚达成协议，从2021年8月开始将月产量每天提高40万桶，直到解除目前对市场的所有580万桶/天的减产。

　　在7月18日宣布欧佩克+新协议后，油价在7月19日下跌了近4%，西德克萨斯中质原油价格报收于每桶69.02美元，布伦特原油价格报收于每桶70.99美元。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Credit Suisse Lifts 2021 Average Brent Price To $70

　　Improving supply and demand fundamentals have prompted Credit Suisse to raise its short and long-term forecasts for oil prices, expecting the average Brent price at $70 a barrel this year, up from $66.50 projected earlier.

　　According to a Credit Suisse note cited by Forexlive, the price of Brent is set to average $69 per barrel next year, up from $68 a barrel the bank had previously expected.

　　The long-term forecast for Brent Crude was also raised—to $62 a barrel from $60 per barrel.

　　Credit Suisse also revised up its forecasts for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, to an average of $67 a barrel this year, up from $62 per barrel in its previous estimate. Next year, WTI prices are set to average $66 per barrel, up from $63 a barrel expected earlier, according to the Swiss bank.

　　In the long term, WTI Crude prices will average $59 a barrel, compared to the previous projection of $55 per barrel.

　　Credit Suisse’s key reason for raising its oil price forecasts is the continued improvement in the fundamentals in supply and demand.

　　Demand continues to surprise to the upside, while OPEC+ and the U.S. shale patch continue to exercise restraint and show strong discipline in adding supply to the market, according to Credit Suisse.

　　Globally, crude oil stocks will continue to draw down in the second half of this year, supporting higher crude oil prices, the bank noted.

　　This year, despite much higher oil prices, U.S. shale continues to keep discipline in spending on drilling, opting to spend more of its record cash flows on reducing debts and rewarding shareholders.

　　OPEC+, for its part, just sealed a deal on Sunday to boost monthly production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in August 2021 until unwinding all the 5.8 million bpd cuts it is currently keeping off the market.

　　On Monday, after the OPEC+ deal was announced on Sunday, oil prices were down by nearly 4 percent, with WTI Crude trading at $69.02 and Brent Crude at $70.99.

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