据油价网2021年7月15日报道，尽管有报道称沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国已经就石油产量达成了一项协议，将欧佩克+协议延长到2022年年底，但高盛集团再次重申了其对布伦特原油价格每桶80美元的预测。

　　由于围绕欧佩克+协议和欧佩克本身未来的不确定性消失，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋达成协议的消息传出后，原油价格应声下跌。 然而，这份协议将意味着更多阿联酋原油进入市场。 这也意味着阿联酋未来将面临进一步的增产压力。

　　然而，7月14日晚些时候，阿联酋通讯社援引本国能源和基础设施部的话报道说，“有关各方仍在进行商议，尚未达成协议。”

　　7月早些时候，阿联酋否决了欧佩克+从8月开始提高原油产量的协议，阿联酋认为任何协议都要以从2018年起修改“低得不公平”的阿联酋基线为条件。 阿联酋坚持要求以更高的基线来计算其配额，因为2018年的数据没有反映出阿联酋扩大的生产能力。 阿联酋计划到2030年前将原油日产量从目前的400万桶提高到500万桶。

　　现在，如果协议真的达成，阿联酋将被允许将其基线原油日产量提高到365万桶，但问题是目前的协议将在明年4月到期， 这将高于欧佩克第三大产油国目前的317万桶的产量基线。

　　在提到石油时，高盛集团是最乐观的银行之一。 不管最新情况发展如何，高盛集团仍坚持今年布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元。 该行仍预计，由于需求强劲反弹，石油市场到今年年底将陷入高达500万桶/天的缺口。

　　这家美国著名投行今年4月曾表示：“决不能低估需求量即将发生的变化，而这种变化是供应无法比拟的。”

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman Bullish On Oil Despite Saudi-UAE Agreement

　　Goldman Sachs has reiterated its $80 price forecast for Brent crude despite reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had reached a deal on oil production that will extend the OPEC+ deal until the end of next year.

　　Crude oil fell after the news of the Saudi-Emirati agreement broke as the uncertainty surrounding the future of the OPEC+ deal and OPEC itself disappeared. Yet, the agreement will mean more UAE oil coming to the market. It also means further pressure from the Emirates to boost production in the future.

　　However, later on Wednesday, the Emirati News Agency wrote, citing the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure that "deliberations between the concerned parties are still going on and that an agreement had not been reached yet."

　　Earlier this month, the UAE blocked a deal on OPEC+ raising oil production from August, making any agreements contingent on revising the "unfairly low" Emirati baseline from 2018. The UAE was insisting on a higher baseline from which to calculate its quotas because the 2018 figure hadn't reflected the country's expanded production capacity. The UAE has ambitions to raise its oil production capacity to 5 million bpd by 2030, from around 4 million bpd now.

　　Now, if an agreement is indeed reached, the UAE will be allowed to raise its baseline production level to 3.65 million bpd but only when the current deal expires in April next year. That would be up from 3.17 million bpd as the current production baseline for OPEC's third-largest producer.

　　Goldman has been one of the most bullish banks when it comes to oil. It has stuck to its $80 for Brent this year no matter the latest developments. The bank still expects the oil market to sink into a deficit of as much as 5 million bpd by the end of this year because of the strong rebound in demand that we are already witnessing.

　　"The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated," the investment bank said in April.

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