据世界石油网站12月13日报道 欧佩克大幅提高了对明年第一季度全球石油需求的预测，因为病毒奥密克戎将推迟今年的部分复苏，但新病毒株的总体风险仍然有限。 

根据欧佩克研究部门的一份月度报告，该组织将这一时期的消费量估计每天增加110万桶，相当于疫情前一年的世界消费量年增长率。 

报告称：“新的奥密克戎变种的影响预计是温和的和短暂的，因为全球应对新冠疫情的能力逐渐增强。” 

这一预测调整意味着，欧佩克及其盟国在1月份继续恢复石油生产的计划时，不会产生如此巨大的盈余。本月早些时候做出增加生产的决定令交易员感到意外，因为市场仍然较为脆弱，这被广泛解读为沙特阿拉伯对美国的政治善意姿态。 

尽管如此，油价仍基本持稳，伦敦原油交易价格接近每桶75美元，因为初步迹象显示，需求尚未受到最新病毒爆发的影响。欧佩克在技术会议上决定不增产，如果需要的话，在短时间内扭转供应增加的趋势，这也支撑了市场情绪。 

周一报告中对需求前景的调整类似于欧佩克+咨询委员会在部长们做出决定前召开的会议。 

该报告第一季度对需求的提振被第二和第三季度的评级下调所抵消。因此，2022年需求增长420万桶/日的全年预测没有变化。 

即使有了这一变化，如果欧佩克+继续恢复疫情期间停止的生产，它也有可能在2022年初造成新的供应过剩。 

该集团估计，第一季度平均每天需要提供2789万桶石油，不过报告显示，该集团13个成员国11月份的产量为2770万桶。本月和下个月计划的供应增加将使该集团的产出高到足以使全球库存再次增加。 

然而，该组织的官员表示，他们对这一结果感到满意，因为该集团的供应限制导致库存耗尽。报告显示，发达国家10月份的库存比五年平均水平低2.07亿桶。 

王磊 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC increases global oil demand forecast for Q1 2022

OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand in the first quarter substantially, as some of this year’s recovery is delayed by Omicron but the overall risk from the new virus strain remains limited.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted estimates for consumption in the period by 1.1 million barrels a day -- equivalent to annual world consumption growth in a typical year before the pandemic -- according to a monthly report from the group’s research department.

“The impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges,” the report said.

The revision means that OPEC and its allies won’t create as big a surplus when they proceed with plans to continue reviving oil production in January. The decision to add barrels, taken earlier this month, surprised traders because markets remain so fragile. It was widely interpreted as a gesture of political goodwill from Saudi Arabia to the U.S.

Oil prices have nonetheless largely held up, with crude trading near $75 a barrel in London, as initial signs show that demand hasn’t yet suffered from the latest virus outbreak. OPEC’s decision to technically keep its meeting in session -- leaving the door open to reversing the supply increase at short notice if needed -- is also shoring up sentiment.

The adjustments to the demand outlook in the report on Monday resemble those taken by an OPEC+ advisory committee that met the evening before ministers made their decision.

The report’s boost to demand in the first quarter is offset by downgrades to the second and third quarters. As a result, there was no change to the full-year forecast for demand growth of 4.2 million barrels a day in 2022.

Even with the change, OPEC+ is likely to cause a new oversupply in early 2022 if it continues to restore production halted during the pandemic.

The group estimates it will need to provide an average of 27.89 million barrels a day during the first quarter, though the report shows that production from its 13 members was 27.7 million in November. Supply increases scheduled this month and next will leave the group’s output high enough to make global inventories increase again.

However, officials from the organization have indicated they’re comfortable with this outcome, given that the group’s supply restraint has left stocks depleted. Inventories in developed nations were 207 million barrels below their five-year average in October, according to the report.

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