据美国油价网2021年12月15日报道，全球著名信用评级机构穆迪公司周三表示，中期内油价可能保持在每桶60美元以上。  

据穆迪公司预测，国际油价将维持在50美元-70美元的中期区间的中间值以上。 

在12月15日发布的一份新报告中，穆迪公司表示，由于价格保持稳定，其2022年的全球能源前景稳定。 然而，成本正在上升，这将限制石油公司的收益。  

穆迪表示：“在2021年出现大幅反弹以后，油气生产商收益的涨势在2022年将更加有限，供需平衡更加合理，但成本也将上升。”

上周，惠誉国际评级公司上调了布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI) 2022年和2023年的油价预期，以反映需求改善以及欧佩克+至少在中短期内将继续管理供应的预期。

惠誉国际评级公司预计，2022年布伦特原油的基准价格平均为每桶70美元，高于此前预期的每桶55美元。 根据惠誉国际评级公司的基本假设，预计明年西德克萨斯中质原油的平均价格为每桶67美元，高于此前预测的每桶52美元。 惠誉国际评级公司预计，2023年布伦特原油价格将从此前预计的每桶53美元升至60美元，西德克萨斯中质原油价格将从此前预计的每桶50美元升至57美元。

鉴于持续供应中断，惠誉国际评级公司还提高了其对欧洲天然气基准——2022年荷兰天然气期货交易所推出的期货产品(TTF)——的假设，以及对美国亨利中心2022年-2023年天然气价格的假设。

惠誉国际评级公司保持其对石油和天然气价格的长期假设不变。保持长期油价假设不变，反映了惠誉国际评级公司对供应边际成本和能源转型风险的看法。 

惠誉国际评级公司说，“我们提高了近期和中期的油价假设，但认识到，鉴于奥密克戎冠状病毒变种的出现，大宗商品市场的形势仍然高度不确定，这可能导致新一轮的封锁和旅行限制，并可能在短期内加剧价格波动。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Moody's: Higher Costs Could Cap Oil Company Earnings

Oil prices are likely to stay higher than $60 per barrel over the medium term, Moody’s said on Wednesday, as reported by LiveSquawk.

According to the credit rating agency, global oil prices will likely remain higher than the mid-point of its medium-term range of $50 to $70 per barrel.

In a new report on Wednesday, Moody’s said that its global energy outlook is stable for 2022 as prices hold firm. However, costs are rising, which will limit gains in earnings for companies.  

“Gains in earnings for oil and gas producers will be more limited in 2022, after a substantial rebound in 2021, with a more rational supply/demand balance but also rising costs,” Moody’s said.

Last week, Fitch Ratings revised up its 2022 and 2023 oil price assumptions for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to reflect improved demand and expectations that OPEC+ will continue to manage supply, at least in the short to medium term.

Fitch Ratings sees Brent Crude averaging $70 per barrel in its base case for 2022, up from $55 per barrel expected earlier. WTI Crude prices are expected to average $67 per barrel next year in Fitch’s base case scenario, up from a $52 a barrel projection before. In 2023, Fitch assumes a $60 Brent price, up from $53 per barrel, and WTI at $57, up from $50 expected earlier.

The raging agency also raised its assumptions for the European gas benchmark, Title Transfer Facility (TTF), for 2022, as well as the U.S. Henry Hub gas price assumptions for 2022-2023, on the back of ongoing supply disruptions.

Fitch left its long-term oil and natural gas price assumptions unchanged. The long-term oil price assumptions were kept unchanged and reflect Fitch’s view on the marginal cost of supply and energy transition risks.

“We have increased our near- and medium-term assumptions but recognise that the situation in the commodity markets remains highly uncertain given the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which may result in renewed lockdowns and travel restrictions and may increase price volatility in the near term,” Fitch Ratings said.

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