据OILNOW网站1月9日消息 总部位于英国的咨询公司伍德麦肯兹表示，今年油价不会持续超过每桶100美元。

The Edge首席分析师及作者西蒙·弗劳尔斯表示：“在欧佩克+的管理下，根据我们的预测，2022年市场将再次恢复平衡。”

弗劳尔斯表示，到第三季度，需求增加450万桶/天，回到疫情前1亿桶/天的水平，供应增加480万桶/天，约一半来自欧佩克+。

他指出：“库存显示，2022年第一季度将出现盈余，不太会影响供应。我们预测布伦特平均每桶70美元/桶，略低于2021年。”

弗劳尔斯表示，在风险方面，由于冠状病毒及其变种的影响，伍德麦肯齐兹经将2022年的需求量削减了近10万桶/天。

该咨询集团预计高达100万桶/天的原油可能在几个月内重返市场。

吴恒磊 编译自 OILNOW

原文如下：

Oil prices not likely to rise above $100/bbl this year for any sustained period – WoodMac

U.K. based consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says it is unlikely that oil prices will rise above $100 a barrel (bbl) for any sustained period in this year.

“Under the careful stewardship of OPEC+, the market is back in balance again in 2022 on our forecasts,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge.

Flowers said demand increases by 4.5 million b/d back to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million b/d by Q3, whereas supply rises by 4.8 million b/d, around half from OPEC+.

“Implied inventories show a surplus in Q1 2022 – we do not expect a shortage of supply. Our forecast is for Brent to average US$70/bbl, marginally below 2021,” he pointed out.

Regarding risks, Flowers said due to the impact of the coronavirus and its variants, WoodMac has already trimmed 2022 demand by almost 0.1 million b/d.

The consultancy group  expect up to 1 million b/d of crude could return to market within months.

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