据Energiesnet网1月3日伦敦报道，就在欧佩克及其盟国考虑再次增产的前一天，该组织下调了对本季度全球石油市场盈余的估计。

该结果可能会鼓励OPEC+的23个成员国继续进行小幅增产，代表们在周二开会时表示预计产量会有所增加。以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的该联盟正在逐步恢复疫情期间停止的日产40万桶的增产量。

根据石油输出国组织（OPEC）及其盟国周一进行的内部研究显示，该组织在2022年前三个月的每日盈余为140万桶，比一个月前的估计减少约25%。这一变化的主要驱动力是联盟竞争对手的供应前景减弱。

由于需求前景更为强劲，2022年的总体情况也略为强劲，全年日均盈余140万桶，而不是委员会上个月看到的170万桶。由位于维也纳的欧佩克内部研究部汇编的该报告，正在由该联盟的联合技术委员会代表部长们进行评估。

石油期货价格上涨，纽约市场早7点16分，西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)上涨0.7%，至每桶75.76美元。

欧佩克重申，其认为奥密克戎变种的影响是“温和而短暂的”，因为“世界变得更有能力应对新冠疫情及其相关挑战”。

该报告还指出，欧佩克+可能在2022年晚些时候面临更大的盈余。该组织曾多次表示，如果需要，它可以暂停甚至取消原定的供应增加计划。

郝芬 译自 能源网

原文如下：

OPEC Sees Tighter First Quarter As It Considers Output Hike

OPEC reduced its estimate of the surplus in global oil markets this quarter, the day before the group and its allies consider another output boost.

The findings may encourage the 23-nation OPEC+ coalition to proceed with the modest production increase that delegates say is expected when they gather on Tuesday. The alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is gradually restoring output halted during the pandemic in installments of 400,000 barrels a day. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries sees a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in the first three months of 2022, about 25 per cent smaller than it estimated a month ago, according to internal research being reviewed by the group and its allies on Monday. The main driver of the change was a weaker outlook for supply from the coalition’s rivals.

The overall picture for 2022 is also slightly stronger as a result of a more robust demand outlook, with an average full-year surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day instead of the 1.7 million seen by the committee last month. The report, compiled by OPEC’s internal research department in Vienna, is being assessed by the alliance’s Joint Technical Committee on behalf of ministers. 

Oil futures rose. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.7 per cent to US$75.76 a barrel at 7:16 a.m. in New York. 

OPEC reiterated that it sees a “mild and short-lived” impact from the omicron variant, as “the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges.”

The report also indicates that OPEC+ could face deeper surpluses later in 2022. The group has said several time that it has the option of pausing or even reversing its scheduled supply increases if needed.

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