据彭博社1月4日报道，市场预计欧佩克(OPEC)将同意在2月再次增产，油价出现波动。

纽约期货市场在每桶76美元上下波动。代表们表示，欧佩克+将在周二会议上批准2月份每日增产40万桶的计划。尽管有人担心，疫情爆发可能会削弱需求。

欧佩克+总体供需形势看起来有所好转，由于竞争对手产量增长放缓，该组织下调了对第一季度盈余预期。最近几周，石油生产国出现了一连串供应问题。

石油市场结构仍处于看涨的现货溢价状态，这表明供应继续紧张。投资者也在回归，基金经理上周加大了对布伦特原油看涨押注，幅度为7月以来最高水平。

荷兰银行(ABN Amro)高级能源经济学家汉斯?范?克里夫(Hans van Cleef)表示，“我不认为欧佩克+会带来太多惊喜，随着越来越多的生产商开始陷入困境，最大的挑战开始是实际实现理论上的产量上升”。

价格方面

伦敦时间上午10:02，西德克萨斯中质原油上涨0.5%，至每桶76.46美元。布伦特原油3月份结算价也上涨0.5%，至每桶79.34美元

根据彭博社报告显示，代表部长们分析市场的欧佩克+联合技术委员会(OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee)预计，2022年前三个月将出现每天140万桶的盈余，比一个月前的预期减少了约25%。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil fluctuates near US$76 ahead of OPEC+ meeting on supply policy

Oil fluctuated before an OPEC+ meeting that’s expected to see the alliance agree to another output boost next month.

Futures in New York swung between gains and losses near US$76 a barrel. OPEC+ is set to ratify a 400,000-barrel-a-day increase for February when it gathers on Tuesday, delegates said. That’s despite concerns that demand could be weakened by virus flare-ups, including in China, the biggest oil importer.

The overall supply-demand backdrop is looking better for OPEC+, with the cartel cutting estimates for a surplus in the first quarter amid slower output growth from its rivals. Recent weeks have seen a litany of supply issues in producing. 

Oil’s market structure remains in a bullish backwardation pattern, which indicates continued tightness of supply. Speculators have also been returning, with money managers last week boosting bullish bets on Brent by the most since July. 

“I don’t expect much surprise” from OPEC+, said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro. “The biggest challenge is starting to be to actually implement the theoretical rise in production as more and more producers start to struggle.”

Prices

West Texas Intermediate rose 0.5 per cent to US$76.46 a barrel at 10:02 a.m. London time

Brent for March settlement also gained 0.5 per cent to trade at US$79.34

The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee, which analyzes the market on behalf of ministers, sees a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in the first three months of 2022, about 25 per cent less than it estimated a month ago, according to a report seen by Bloomberg.

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