据烃加工新闻1月13日消息称，美国能源情报署预计，到2022年，普通汽油零售价格平均为3.06美元/加仑，高于2021年的3.00美元/加仑，然后在2023年降至2.80美元/加仑。他们预计，到2022年，高速公路柴油的平均价格将升至3.33美元/加仑，到2023年将降至3.27美元/加仑。在EIA的预测中，美国的年平均柴油需求将在2022年达到2019年的水平。

EIA预计，到2022年和2023年，需求增长放缓和原油产量增加将有助于降低原油和石油产品价格。原油价格是零售汽油和柴油燃料价格的最大推动力。

EIA预计，随着需求增长放缓，最近下调的汽油零售价格将在2022年继续下降。他们估计，2020年汽车平均汽油消费量预计下降120万桶/天，而2021年则增加了70万桶/天。他们预计，2022年将增加30万桶/天，到2023年将小幅增加不到10万桶/天。

根据STEO的预测，EIA预计美国汽油消费量将保持在2019年水平(930万桶/天)以下。

朱佳妮 摘译自 烃加工新闻

原文如下：

EIA expects gasoline, diesel prices to fall in 2022 and 2023

The EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.06/gal in 2022, up from $3.00/gal in 2021, and then down to $2.80/gal in 2023. They expect on-highway diesel prices to increase to average $3.33/gal in 2022 before decreasing to $3.27/gal in 2023. In the EIA's forecast, annual average diesel demand reaches 2019 levels in the U.S. in 2022.

The EIA expects that slower demand growth and increasing crude oil production through 2022 and 2023 will contribute to lower crude oil and petroleum product prices. Crude oil prices are the largest driver of retail gasoline and diesel fuel prices.

In 2022, the EIA expects recently reduced retail gasoline prices to continue to decline as demand growth slows. They estimate that annual average motor gasoline consumption, which fell by an estimated 1.2 MMbpd in 2020, increased by 0.7 MMbpd in 2021. They expect an additional increase of 0.3 MMbpd in 2022 and before a minor increase of less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2023.

The EIA expects U.S. gasoline consumption to remain below 2019 levels (9.3 MMbpd) on an annual basis through the STEO forecast.

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