据OilNOW网站1月15日消息 2021年，全球排放交易计划（ETS）的碳价格创下历史新高，欧盟和英国的碳价格最高。然而，GlobalData指出，世界范围内的价格仍然不足以按照巴黎协议减少排放。这家数据和分析公司强调，只有22%的温室气体明确定价，低于4%的温室气体定价为每吨40美元，这是实现巴黎协议目标所必需的最低价格。

GlobalData能源转型分析师迈尔斯·温斯坦表示：“增加碳成本是消除燃煤发电的关键战略。例如，在英国，碳定价帮助该国在十年内大幅减少了对煤炭的依赖。虽然自2019年以来，欧盟的价格一直在稳步上涨，但欧洲和新西兰仍是唯一价格超过每吨40美元最低价格的地区。加拿大、加利福尼亚和韩国正在接近这一价格。”

2021年，许多因素共同推动了碳价格的急剧上涨。

韦恩斯坦表示，2021年天然气短缺导致天然气价格上涨，这导致了许多电力生产商转向煤，这意味着它们排放更多的二氧化碳，从而驱使排放量的需求。此外，脱碳政策的雄心壮志起到了关键作用，欧盟在2021年7月提出了更严格的ETS措施，欧盟ETS的市场投机也增加了价格。

在美国，有人提议征收沼气费，如果获得通过，将于2023年生效。到2025年，这将使甲烷价格从900美元/吨提高到1500美元/吨。在二氧化碳当量的基础上，这分别从36美元/吨上升到60美元/吨。

温斯坦表示：“这不仅是美国对温室气体排放征收的第一项税，也是国家层面上的第一个碳价格，而且最终价格在满足巴黎协议目标所需的范围内。”

在全球范围内，全球31个司法管辖区有ETS，35个司法管辖区有碳税。碳定价的重要性可以通过全球850多家公司为各种目的使用内部碳定价来证明，从投资规划到公司层面的减排目标。至少有七家石油和天然气巨头使用内部碳价格，从今天的25美元/吨到2030年的100美元/吨不等。

吴恒磊 编译自 OilNOW

原文如下：

Natural gas shortage drove steep increase in carbon prices in 2021, says GlobalData

During 2021, emissions trading schemes (ETS) around the world saw record-high carbon prices, with the highest seen in the EU and UK. However, GlobalData notes that prices worldwide are still inadequate to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. The data and analytics company highlights that only 22% of greenhouse gases are explicitly priced and less than 4% are priced at $40/ton — the minimum price considered necessary to meet Paris Agreement targets.

“Increasing carbon costs is a key strategy towards eliminating coal-fired power production. In the UK, for example, carbon pricing helped the country drastically reduce reliance on coal within ten years,” said Miles Weinstein, Energy Transition Analyst at GlobalData. “While prices have been rising steadily in the EU since 2019, Europe and New Zealand remain the only regions with a price over the $40/ton bare minimum. Canada, California and South Korea are approaching that price.”

In 2021, a number of factors came together to drive a steeper increase in carbon prices.

Weinstein said the price of natural gas increased in 2021 driven by a natural gas shortage. “This caused a number of power producers to switch to coal, meaning they emitted more CO2 and thus drove demand for emission allowances. Further, the increased ambition of decarbonization policies played a key role, with the EU proposing stricter ETS measures in July 2021, and market speculation in the EU ETS also increased the price.”

In the US, a methane fee was proposed, which—if passed—will take effect in 2023. This would increase methane prices from $900/ton to $1500/ton in 2025. On a CO2-equivalent basis, this is a rise from $36/ton to $60/ton, respectively.

“Not only would this be the first tax on greenhouse gas emissions anywhere in the US, and the first ‘carbon’ price at a national level, but the final price is within the range needed to meet Paris Agreement targets,” Weinstein said.

Globally, 31 jurisdictions worldwide have an ETS, and 35 have a carbon tax. The importance of carbon pricing can be evidenced by the use of internal carbon pricing by over 850 companies worldwide for a variety of purposes, from investment planning to company-level emission reduction goals. At least seven oil and gas majors use internal carbon prices, ranging from $25/ton today to $100/ton by 2030.

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