据美国彭博新闻社2022年1月18日报道，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)预计，今年全球石油市场将继续受到强劲需求的“良好支撑”，保持有信心的前景，使欧佩克得以恢复生产。

1月18日，伦敦和纽约的原油价格攀升至2014年以来的最高水平，在一系列供应中断限制供应的情况下，燃油消费的复苏基本没有受到奥密克戎变异毒株的阻碍。布伦特原油期货价格一度突破每桶88美元。

欧佩克在其最新一期的月度报告中称，即便各国央行收紧货币政策，石油市场的强势仍将持续。 欧佩克公布的数据显示，目前全球石油的库存水平远低于5年平均水平。

欧佩克重申了其去年12月的预测，即“奥密克戎毒株对需求的影响将是温和且短暂的”，而这一预测目前已被证实。

总部位于维也纳的欧佩克研究部门的乐观前景，应该会让产油国在2月初开会时感到放心。  

欧佩克及其合作伙伴——以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的23国联盟——一直在逐步恢复新冠肺炎疫情大流行期间停止的原油产量。

然而，这也成为原油市场的一个看涨催化剂，因为欧佩克+联盟的原油产量未能按照计划的速度增长，一些成员国的石油生产受到投资不足和动荡的阻碍。

报告显示，去年12月，欧佩克成员国每日新增石油产量仅为16.6万桶，低于25万桶的目标。 尼日利亚的石油产量再次下降。  

欧佩克对今年全球石油需求和供应的预测与上个月报告的预测基本一致。  

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

OPEC Sees Oil Market Well Supported

OPEC expects global oil markets to remain “well-supported” this year by robust demand, maintaining the confident outlook that has allowed the group to revive production.

Crude prices climbed to the highest since 2014 in London and New York on Tuesday, with the recovery in fuel consumption largely unimpeded by the omicron variant while a range of disruptions restricts supply. Brent futures topped $88 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that the market’s strength will persist, even as central banks tighten monetary policy. Stockpiles are considerably below their five-year average, the group’s data show.

OPEC repeated its prediction from last month that “the impact of the omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived” -- a projection that has so far been vindicated. 

The bullish outlook from OPEC’s Vienna-based research department ought to reassure the producers when they gather early next month. 

OPEC and its partners -- a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia -- have been returning the output they halted during the pandemic in gradual installments.

Yet this too has been a bullish catalyst for crude markets as the coalition fails to increase at its planned pace, with a number of members hindered by under-investment and unrest. 

In December, OPEC’s members added just 166,000 barrels a day, compared with a target of 250,000 a day, the report showed. Nigeria saw its output fall once again. 

OPEC kept forecasts for global oil demand and supply this year largely unchanged from last month’s report.

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