据伍德麦肯兹1月25日报道，2021年对金属和采矿业者提出了一个特殊的挑战，即如何理解混乱的价格波动和一系列令人眼花缭乱的市场信号。预计2022年将从2021年的狂热节奏中获得一些喘息机会，当然，事情不会在一夜之间改变。

从经济角度来看，今年金属和采矿业的极端情况似乎将有所减少，但不确定性将不断扩大。如果说2021年是反弹的一年，那么2022年很可能是重新平衡的一年。许多证据表明，2022年需求增长会降低，激措施将减弱，财政和货币政策将收紧，供应链将恢复。在这种环境下，商品价格可能会从2021年的异常高点回落。

对金属和矿业公司来说，决策、脱碳和纪律很重要。

对于多元化矿商来说，2022年将是关键的一年。在COP26会议之后，矿业公司更加敏锐地意识到外界对该行业的看法，以及由此带来的挑战。

然而，世界需要矿业公司在2022年产出比以往任何时候都多的材料。矿业公司可以通过加速生产低碳技术的基础材料，开启一条更快的脱碳道路。那么，矿商会将自己定位为变革的推动者吗？

金属与矿业公司2022年最需要关注的五件事，即煤炭资产的决策时间、针对并购期待有一个慎重的解决方法、寻找新领域、收紧脱碳目标而不是预算、成本膨胀和价格下降限制了股息增长。

王佳晶 摘译自 伍德麦肯兹

原文如下：

What are the key trends to watch in the metals and mining industry in 2022?

Last year presented a unique challenge to metals and mining players: how to make sense of disorientating price volatility and a dizzying array of market signals. We expect 2022 to provide some respite from the frenetic pace of 2021 – but of course things won't change overnight.

From an economic perspective, it looks set to be a year of narrowing extremes but widening uncertainty for the metals and mining sector. If last year was all about rebound, then 2022 could well be characterised by rebalance. Much of the evidence points to a year of lower demand growth. Look for stimulus to wane, fiscal and monetary policy to tighten, and supply chains to refill. In this environment, commodity prices could settle from the extraordinary highs of 2021.

metals and mining corporates: decisions, decarbonisation and discipline

For the diversified miners this will be a pivotal year. In the wake of COP26, mining companies are even more acutely aware of the outside perception of the sector, and the challenge that represents.

Yet the world needs mining companies to shift more material than ever before in 2022. Miners can unlock a faster decarbonisation pathway by accelerating production of the very building blocks of low-carbon technology. Will they position themselves as agents of change?

five things to look for in 2022 for our view on:

Decision time for coal assets

M&A – expect a measured approach

Miners look for new domains

Tightening decarbonisation targets, not budgets

Cost inflation and lower prices to limit dividend growth

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