据美国彭博新闻社2022年1月27日报道，全球柴油库存的大幅下降使得柴油市场很容易受到价格飙升的影响。

在欧洲，欧洲大陆最大的炼油厂正在准备开工，这将限制其柴油产量。 与此同时，美国炼油商将生产汽油列为优先事项，这进一步削弱柴油供应。   

所有这些都有助于进一步缩减全球柴油库存，并推高燃油相对于原油的溢价——这是炼油厂的关键指标。 由于产量和库存受到抑制，市场对需求超出预期或炼油厂突然减产变得越来越敏感。  

咨询公司伍德麦肯兹负责炼油、化工和石油市场的副总裁Alan Gelder表示，“我们确实认为，如果柴油需求强劲，或出现多家炼油厂停产，今年第一季度的柴油价格有可能大幅上调。”

柴油用于运输、卡车运输以及重工业。 柴油也是炼油厂生产的主要衍生产品之一，这意味着价格波动是更广泛的通胀问题的一部分，正在给全球各国政府和央行带来压力。  

多年来的低点

美国和新加坡公布的数据显示，柴油库存处于多年来的季节性低点。 欧洲西北部的石油交易中心也是如此，其独立储存的石油库存比过去5年的平均水平低40%。 Gelder说，炼油厂的开工率减少是问题的一个重要部分，尤其是在欧洲。 欧洲地区的炼油厂正在为高昂的天然气成本和碳排放而苦苦挣扎。  

与此同时，国际能源署的数据显示，今年全球对公路燃料的需求将达到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前水平的99.7%。

与原油相比，柴油不那么容易受到供应冲击——炼油厂数量比主要原油供应商多得多——而且它们一般不太容易受到政府干预。

不过，柴油供应紧张确实与石油市场对缺乏备用产能的普遍担忧有关。  

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下： 

Diesel Market Looks at Risk of Price Spikes

A slump in global diesel stockpiles has left the market vulnerable to price spikes.

In Europe, the continent’s largest oil refinery is starting work that will curb its output. At the same time, U.S. refiners are prioritizing making gasoline, further eroding supply. 

All that has helped to further shrink inventories globally and drive up the premium the fuel commands over crude -- the key metric for oil refineries. With output and stockpiles curbed, that’s created a market increasingly sensitive to either demand exceeding expectations, or out-of-the blue output reductions at refineries.

“We do see the potential for a sharp upward correction in diesel prices during the first quarter if demand comes in stronger or there are a number of refinery outages,” said Alan Gelder, vice president for refining, chemicals & oil markets at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

Diesel is used in transport and trucking as well as heavy industry. It’s also one of the main products that oil refineries churn out, meaning price moves are part of the wider inflation story that’s pressuring governments and central banks the world over.

Multiyear Lows

In the U.S. and Singapore, data point to diesel inventories being at multiyear seasonal lows. The same is true in northwest Europe’s oil trading hub, where stockpiles held in independent storage are 40% below the five-year average. Reduced refinery runs are a big part of the problem, particularly in Europe, Gelder said. The region’s plants are struggling with high costs of natural gas and carbon emissions.

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Meanwhile, global demand for the road fuel is set to reach 99.7% of pre-pandemic levels this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

Diesel is less vulnerable to supply shocks than crude -- there are many more refineries than major crude suppliers -- and they are generally less subject to government intervention.

Still, diesel’s tightness does tie into the oil market’s broader concern about a lack of spare production capacity.

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