据美国油价网报道，路透社援引2月2日举行的欧佩克联合技术委员会的新闻稿报道说，欧佩克+仍预计今年全球石油市场将出现供应过剩，但已将过剩量上调10万桶/天至130万桶/天。 

路透社援引未具名消息人士的话报道说，欧佩克2月2日会议本身不太可能产生任何冲击：欧佩克计划坚持每月总产量日增40万桶的安排，直到该组织产量恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

然而，这对欧佩克+的许多成员国来说可能很困难，数月来，它们一直在努力实现根据协议分配给它们的配额。该协议标志着欧佩克及其以俄罗斯为首的合作伙伴开始逆转有史以来最大的石油减产。 为应对疫情以及由此造成的石油需求减少，欧佩克+同意每日减少近800万桶的石油供应。

减产，再加上维护投资的减少和石油勘探活动的减少，大大减少了欧佩克+的备用产能，业内人士警告称，这将使全球备用产能降至20多年来的最低水平。

根据路透社来自欧佩克内部不愿透露姓名的消息人士的话，即使是高油价似乎也未能说服欧佩克+增加产量。其中一位消息人士表示，“更快增产的问题没有出现，我怀疑增产问题会不会出现。” 

这可能是因为欧佩克+喜欢当前的油价，也可能是因为欧佩克+连续几个月未能实现月度配额背后的备用产能问题。

PVM的Tamas Varga日前对路透社表示：“石油市场目前毫无保留地看涨。”“国际紧张局势、供应紧张的感觉和寒冷的冬季是这种强劲看涨背后的最重要因素。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

OPEC+ Still Expects Oil Surplus This Year

OPEC+ still expects the global oil market to be in a surplus this year, but has revised the overhang by 100,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd, Reuters reported citing the group's Joint Technical Committee, which met yesterday ahead of today's monthly meeting of OPEC+.

The meeting itself is unlikely to produce any shocks: according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, the cartel planned to stick to its arrangement of adding 400,000 bpd in collective output to its monthly total until national production levels returned to pre-pandemic levels.

This, however, may be tough for many members of the group, which have been struggling for months to meet the quotas assigned to them under the agreement that marked the beginning of a reversal in the deepest oil production cuts ever made by OPEC and its Russia-led partners. In response to the pandemic and the destruction of oil demand it caused, the group agreed to take almost 8 million bpd off the market.

The production cuts, combined with lower investments in maintenance and lower oil exploration, reduced OPEC+'s spare capacity substantially, prompting warnings that this would bring down global spare oil capacity to the lowest in more than two decades.

Even high prices seem to have not managed to convince OPEC+ to pump more, based on information from Reuters' unnamed sources from inside the cartel, with one of them saying, "The issue (of speedier increases) did not come up and I doubt it will."

This could be because OPEC+ likes prices where they are, or it could be because of the spare capacity problem that has been behind the consistent failure of the group to deliver on its monthly quotas for several months in a row.

"The oil market is currently unreservedly bullish," Tamas Varga from PVM told Reuters this week. "It is international tension, the perception of tight supply and the cold winter that are the most important factors behind the strength."

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