据烃加工3月24日消息称，EIA 预计可再生柴油供应——国内生产和净进口——将在短期内超过生物柴油供应。EIA预计，可再生柴油供应量将在2022年增加到13万桶/天，在2050年增加到14.5万桶/天，这反映了近期可再生柴油产能的显著增加。

生物质柴油包括生物柴油和可再生柴油，这两种燃料都是从相同类型的脂肪、油脂和油脂原料中提炼出来的。可再生柴油在化学上与石油柴油（称为嵌入式柴油）没有区别，这意味着它满足现有基础设施和柴油发动机的使用规格，不受任何混合限制。生物柴油是一种被称为烷基酯的化合物的混合物，通常以5%到20%的比例与石油柴油结合，分别被称为B5到B20。

EIA预计，由于可再生柴油与现有的分销基础设施和发动机的兼容性，州和联邦对可再生燃料生产的更高目标，税收减免的激励措施，以及现有炼油厂向可再生柴油炼油厂的转换，可再生柴油供应的产量将会增长。

促进可再生柴油增长的目标和激励措施包括可再生燃料标准、加州的低碳燃料标准和美国的生物质柴油搅拌机信贷。

EIA假设，推动采用生物质柴油的是政策，而不是市场需求。可再生柴油和生物柴油竞争相同的原料，因此预计可再生柴油产量的一些增长将取代生物柴油产量。EIA 预计，这两种燃料在较大的柴油市场中仍将是相对较小的一部分，到2050年占美国柴油产量的比例不到8%。

朱佳妮 摘译自 烃加工

原文如下：

EIA projects U.S. renewable diesel supply to surpass biodiesel

The EIA projects that renewable diesel supply—domestic production and net imports—will exceed biodiesel supply in the near term. The EIA projects that renewable diesel supply will increase to 130,000 bpd in 2022 and 145,000 bpd in 2050, reflecting a significant increase in renewable diesel production capacity in the near term.

Biomass-based diesel fuels include biodiesel and renewable diesel, both of which are refined from the same types of fat, oil, and grease feedstocks. Renewable diesel is chemically indistinguishable from petroleum diesel (known as a drop-in diesel fuel), meaning that it meets specifications for use in existing infrastructure and diesel engines and is not subject to any blending limitations. Biodiesel is a mixture of chemical compounds known as alkyl esters and is often combined with petroleum diesel in blends of 5% to 20%, known as B5 to B20, respectively.

The EIA projects that production of renewable diesel supply will grow because of its compatibility with existing distribution infrastructure and engines, higher state and federal targets for renewable fuel production, incentives from tax credits, and the conversion of existing petroleum refineries into renewable diesel refineries.

Targets and incentives that contribute to renewable diesel’s growth include the Renewable Fuel Standard, California’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard, and the U.S. biomass-based diesel blender credit.

The EIA assumes that policies, rather than market demand, drive the adoption of biomass-based diesel fuels. Renewable diesel and biodiesel compete for the same feedstocks, so some of the projected growth in renewable diesel production displaces biodiesel production. The EIA projects that these two fuels will remain a relatively small part of the larger diesel market, accounting for less than 8% of the U.S. diesel production in 2050.