据美国钻井网站2022年6月23日报道，美国银行全球研究（BofA Global Research）在本周发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中指出，油价仍有可能达到每桶150美元。

在这份报告中，美银全球研究指出，预计布伦特原油在今年和2023年的平均价格将为每桶102美元，并强调，如果欧洲制裁迫使大国石油日产量低于900万桶，布伦特原油价格可能会飙升至每桶150美元。

美银全球研究在报告中指出：“然而，由于远期油价一直牢牢地固定在每桶60至80美元的长期油价区间内，市场似乎并不认为供应危机会持续10年。”

“因此，延长对能源的制裁可能会作为价格底部，即使近期现货油价下跌风险加大。 即使全球陷入衰退，我们估计2023年布伦特原油的平均价格可能会超过每桶75美元。”美银全球研究补充道。

在这份报告中，美银全球研究指出，它仍假定不会出现衰退，但同时补充说，经济增长受到能源产量有限的制约，燃料价格正在上涨，各国央行正在加息，以减缓整体经济的增长。

美银全球研究在报告中称：“从食品、能源到服务等领域的通胀压力不断上升，再加上利率快速上调，表明石油需求在明年之前很难完全恢复到疫情暴发前的水平。”  

美银全球研究补充称：“今天大规模炼油厂瓶颈背后的地缘政治冲突，正在为美国巨大的能源（SPR释放、出口限制）、美国对外（访问沙特）和美国货币（加息75个基点）政策回应铺平道路。” 

“石油需求的破坏将如何收场？ 鉴于美元的强势，印度、土耳其、南非、日本、德国或西班牙等大型能源进口国面临需求萎缩的最大风险。”美银全球研究在报告中继续说道。

美银全球研究在报告中称，如果大国石油日供应量不降至1000万桶以下，2023年全球石油日需求可能增加170万桶。根据欧佩克网站6月2日发布的最新一次欧佩克+会议声明的产量表，大国今年7月份的“所要求的原油日产量”为1083万桶。

在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的价格为每桶109.11美元。这个大宗商品在今年迄今的最高收盘价为每桶127.98美元，出现在3月8日。 

李峻 编译自美国钻井网站

原文如下：

150 Oil Could Still Happen. Here's How.

$150 oil could still happen, BofA Global Research indicated in a new report sent to Rigzone this week.

In the report, BofA Global Research outlined that it sees Brent averaging $102 per barrel this year and in 2023 and highlighted that a potential spike to $150 per barrel could happen if European sanctions push oil production below nine million barrels per day.

“Yet the market does not seem to be pricing in a decade-long Russian supply crisis, as long dated oil prices have stayed firmly anchored in our long-term oil price band of $60 to $80 per barrel oil,” BofA Global Research noted in the report.

“Thus, extended sanctions on  energy could act as a price floor even if near-dated spot oil price downside risks grow. Even if the world goes into recession, we estimate Brent could average more than $75 per barrel in 2023,” BofA Global Research added.

In the report, BofA Global Research noted that it still assumes no recession, yet, although added that economic growth is constrained by limited energy output, fuel prices are rising, and central banks are hiking interest rates to slow down growth across the broader economy.

“Surging inflationary pressures from food to energy to services, coupled with fast paced interest rate hikes, suggest oil demand will struggle to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until next year,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.

“The geopolitics (the war) behind today’s massive refinery bottleneck are paving the way for a huge U.S. energy (SPR release, export limits), U.S. foreign (Saudi visit), and U.S. monetary (75bps hikes) policy response,” BofA Global Research added.

“How will oil demand destruction play out? Given the strength of the USD, large energy importers such as India, Turkey, South Africa, Japan, Germany or Spain are at the greatest risk of a demand contraction,” the company continued.

BofA Global Research said in the report that, if  oil supply does not drop below 10 million barrels per day, global oil demand could grow by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023. According to a production table accompanying a statement about the latest OPEC+ meeting, which was posted on OPEC’s website on June 2, its “required production” for July 2022 is 10.83 million barrels per day.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $109.11 per barrel. The commodity’s highest close in 2022 so far has been $127.98, which was seen on March 8.