据美国彭博新闻社2022年8月10日报道，尽管在美国页岩领域成本飙升和劳动力短缺导致产量增长速度低于预期，但美国明年的石油产量仍有望达到创纪录水平。  

美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的数据显示，明年美国石油产量预计将以平均每天84万桶的速度增长，低于此前预测的每天86万桶。尽管美国明年石油日产量仍将达到历史最高水平，但美国政府仍将其预测略降至1270万桶。目前的纪录是2019年创下的1230万桶。 

美国以前是一个关键的摇摆油气生产国，通常能够在全球需求变化时迅速增加供应。然而，近几年来，面对不断增长的股东回报和不断飙升的油田成本，美国页岩钻井公司的增长有限。  

EIA还下调了今年美国原油产量预测，估计美国今年的平均日产量将为1186万桶。这是该机构1月份报告以来的最低预测。 

与此同时，EIA预计今明两年全球石油日消费量将增加210万桶，但警告说，经济衰退会带来需求风险。EIA 8月10日表示：“在我们的预测中，经济活动不那么强劲，可能会导致能源消耗低于预期。”

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

U.S. oil output set for record 2023 despite slowing growth

U.S. oil production remains on track for a record 2023 even as output grows more slowly than anticipated amid surging costs and labor shortages in America’s shale fields.

Output is expected to expand at an average rate of 840,000 barrels a day next year, down from a prior forecast of 860,000, according to the Energy Information Administration. While production is still seen reaching an all-time high in 2023, the government revised its forecast slightly lower to 12.7 million barrels a day. The current annual record is 12.3 million set in 2019. 

The US was previously a key swing producer, usually capable of ramping up supply quickly as global demand shifts. In recent years, however, shale drillers have limited growth in favor of increasing shareholder returns and in the face of soaring oilfield costs. 

The EIA also lowered this year’s production forecast, estimating US output will average 11.86 million barrels a day in 2022. That’s the lowest forecast since the agency’s January report.

Meanwhile, the agency sees global petroleum consumption growing by 2.1 million barrels day this year and next, but cautioned that a recession poses demand risks. “Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption,” the agency said Wednesday.