据美国油价网2022年8月25日报道，瑞士联合银行（瑞银/UBS）策略师预计，油价在未来几个月将反弹至每桶125美元，原因是基本面因素指向油价上涨，备用产能正在减少，库存处于多年低位。

在周四的一份研究报告中，瑞银策略师对沙特日前有关欧佩克+可能随时减产的评论做出了上述回应，理由是基本面与石油期货价格之间存在“脱节”。 

瑞银策略师还指出，欧洲海运进口石油的禁令将于12月份生效，这将对石油市场造成冲击。

“欧盟打算在12月5日前减少对海运原油进口的依赖，在明年2月5日前减少对成品油进口的依赖。 据《国家新闻报》报道，这可能会造成一些供应中断，因为产能大国7月份向欧盟日出口原油达到280万桶。”

瑞银策略师表示，经合组织成员国停止释放战略石油储备，将从11月份开始导致市场每日减少100多万桶原油供应。  

瑞银策略师认为，这将导致“今年年底全球石油市场趋紧”。  

本周早些时候，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣就欧佩克+可能削减石油产量发表了评论。 从那时起，油价又回升到每桶100美元以上。  

市场还将经济增长放缓视为油价看跌因素。

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

UBS Sees $125 Oil In The ’Coming Months

Swiss UBS strategists predict that oil will rebound to $125 in the coming months as fundamentals point to higher prices, spare capacity is ebbing and inventories are at multi-year lows. 

In a Thursday research note, UBS responded to Saudi comments to the effect that OPEC+ could cut production at any time, citing a “disconnect” between fundamentals and oil futures prices. 

The bank also noted coming disruption to oil markets when a European ban on the larger producer seaborne oil imports goes into effect in December. 

"The European Union intends to cut its dependence on the larger producer waterborne crude imports by December 5 and refined products by February 5. This will likely cause some disruptions as oil imports to the EU amounted to 2.8m bpd in July,” the research note said, as reported by The National News.  

UBS strategists said an end of releases from strategic petroleum reserves in OECD countries would end up taking more than 1 million barrels per day off the market beginning in November. 

This would lead to “tighter markets at the end of the year”, UBS wrote.  

The comments regarding OPEC+’s potential to cut oil production came from the Saudi Energy MInister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman earlier this week. Since then, oil prices have risen back above $100 per barrel. 

The market has also been factoring in slowing economic growth as a bearish weight.