根据世界最大的大宗商品交易商之一的托克公司所说，今年油价将很难突破100美元

自今年春天攀升至每桶130美元以上以来，油价一直在下跌，布伦特原油价格最近跌至每桶85美元  

由于各国央行大举加息，以及疫情因素，要将油价推至100美元，还需要做出很多改变

据油价网9月27日报道，全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一的托克公司表示，全球经济放缓和加息将使投资者和交易商远离原油等风险资产，这可能意味着今年油价每桶可能不会再次超过100美元。 

“考虑到宏观经济的不利因素，我认为总体而言，价格将会挣扎…… 尽管制裁迫在眉睫”，托克公司首席经济学家萨阿德·拉希姆在新加坡亚太经合组织石油会议期间对路透社记者如是表示。  

布伦特原油价格最近跌至每桶85美元，这是今年1月地缘政治冲突之前出现的水平。今年春天，油价达到了多年来的高点，每桶超过130美元。

在利率上升、经济放缓的证据越来越多、进一步大幅加息可能抑制经济增长（可能还会抑制石油需求增长）的背景下，投资者对风险资产的厌恶情绪在第三季度一直给石油市场带来压力。 

托克公司的首席经济学家拉希姆对路透社记者表示：“到目前为止，市场更多的是转向而非削减，但我认为从现在开始还不清楚。”

这位经济学家对路透社表示，如果明年放松疫情有关限制，以及美联储放缓或暂停加息以试图刺激经济增长，那么油价可能反弹到每桶100美元以上。

拉希姆说，尽管目前的油价每桶低于90美元，欧佩克+还没有做出回应，因为他们可能在考虑整个市场的情况，“实际上，目前的全球石油需求仍然相对坚挺” 。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Will Oil Prices Bounce Back Above $100 This Year?

·     According to one of the world’s largest commodity traders, oil prices will struggle to break back above $100 this year.

·     Since climbing above $130 a barrel this spring, oil prices have fallen consistently, with Brent slumping to $85 recently.

·     As central banks aggressively hike interest rates and the Covid factor, much would have to change to send oil prices to $100.

Slowing economies and interest rate hikes are set to keep investors and traders off risk assets such as crude oil, which could mean that oil prices may not exceed $100 per barrel again this year, according to one of the world’s largest commodities traders, Trafigura.  

“Given the macro headwinds, I think generally prices will struggle ... despite imminent sanctions,” Saad Rahim, Chief Economist for Trafigura, told Reuters on the sidelines of APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore.

Oil prices have recently slumped to $85 a barrel Brent, a level last seen in January this year before the war. In the spring, oil hit multi-year highs of over $130 a barrel.

An aversion to risk assets amid rising interest rates, mounting evidence of slowing economies, and further aggressive rate hikes that could dampen economic growth—and possibly oil demand growth—have been weighing on the oil market during the third quarter. 

“So far the market has been more redirection than reduction, but I think it is unclear from here,” Trafigura’s Rahim told Reuters.

Next year, oil prices could rebound to above $100 per barrel if it lifts Covid-related mobility restrictions and the Fed slows or pauses rate hikes to try to boost growth, the economist told Reuters.

Despite the current sub-$90 oil, OPEC+ hasn’t responded yet, because they are likely looking at the overall market picture, Rahim said, adding that “actually demand today is still relatively holding up.”