据钻机地带3月20日报道，对石油前景最乐观的银行之一高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)小幅下调了对石油的预测，原因是对银行业和经济衰退可能性的担忧超过了亚洲需求激增的影响。

该行分析师目前预计，布伦特原油在未来12个月将达到每桶94美元，2024年下半年将达到每桶97美元，此前为每桶100美元。

该行在3月18日的一份报告中表示：“尽管亚洲需求旺盛，但由于银行业压力、对经济衰退的担忧以及投资者外流，油价仍大幅下跌。”“从历史上看，在这样的重大事件之后，仓位和价格只能逐渐恢复，尤其是长期价格。”

本周全球市场动荡不安，瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG)的动荡引发了整个市场的恐慌。油价已跌至15个月低点，布伦特原油本周下跌12%，至每桶73美元以下。

随着油价下跌，该银行现在预计欧佩克产油国只会在2024年第三季度增加产量，而高盛在价格暴跌前估计的是2023年下半年。

寿琳玲 编译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Oil Prices Won't Hit $100 This Year

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the most bullish banks on its outlook for oil, has nudged its forecasts down as worries over the banking sector and the potential for recession outweigh a surge in demand from Asia.

The bank’s analysts now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously.

“Oil prices have plunged despite the Asian demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” the bank said in a March 18 note. “Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.” 

Global markets have been roiled this week as turmoil at Credit Suisse Group AG triggered panic across markets. Oil has slumped to a 15-month low, with Brent dropping 12% this week to below $73 a barrel. 

Following the decline in prices, the bank now expects OPEC producers to only increase output in the third quarter of 2024, versus in the second half of 2023 which Goldman had estimated before the price rout.