据彭博新闻社2023年7月13日报道，由于原油供应中断令现货市场收紧，全球基准原油布伦特原油价格当天报收于11周高位。

加拿大帝国商业银行私人财管部门高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表示：“由于市场最近从供应过剩转为供应不足，这一事件正获得更多关注。”“宏观背景有所改善，使得每一桶原油都变得很重要。”

原油价格最近突破了100日移动均线等关键技术位，突破了两个月来一直处于的窄幅交易区间。目前，交易商正密切关注原油期货是否会突破200日移动均线——布伦特原油每桶约82.50美元，西得克萨斯中质原油约为每桶约77.30美元——这可能引发更多买盘。

美国通胀走软也支撑了大宗商品价格。通胀走软促使人们对美联储(FED)的加息周期可能即将结束感到乐观。

尽管IEA表示，由于发达国家经济步履蹒跚，今年全球石油需求增长速度不会像此前预期那么快，但IEA仍预计今年全球石油需求将创历史新高。在另一份报告中，欧佩克预计明年全球石油市场将更加紧张，欧佩克预计需求增长数值将比其他主要预测机构大得多。

尽管交易商继续关注西方经济衰退的迹象——即便是在美国经济前景好转之际——同时等待经济复苏提速，原油价格今年仍在下跌。欧佩克+产油大国正在减产以支撑市场。主打产品乌拉尔原油价格突破了七国集团设定的价格上限。

价格： 

西得克萨斯中质原油8月期货上涨1.14美元，至每桶76.89美元。

布伦特原油9月结算价上涨1.25美元，报收于每桶81.36美元。

李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Supply Outages Drive Oil Prices to 11 Week High

Global benchmark Brent settled at an 11-week high as supply outages tightened the physical market. 

Libya’s second-biggest oil field is in the process of shutting amid protests there. The outage of the roughly 250,000 barrel-a-day Sharara field follows disruptions at the country’s El Feel area and Nigeria’s Forcados oil terminal.

“This event is garnering heightened attention as the market has recently inflected from a surplus to a deficit,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “The macro backdrop has improved, making every barrel important.”

Prices recently pierced key technical levels such as the 100-day moving average, breaking out of the tight trading range they’ve been stuck in for two months after. Now traders are keeping a close watch on whether futures will cross above their 200-day moving averages — around $82.50 for Brent and $77.30 for WTI — which could trigger more buying.

Softening US inflation, which has prompted some optimism that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, is also supporting the commodity. 

While the International Energy Agency said global oil demand won’t grow as fast as previously expected this year due to the faltering economies of developed nations, the agency still sees record demand this year. In a separate report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much bigger demand increase than other major forecasters.

Crude is nevertheless down this year as traders continue to watch for signs of recession in the west — even amid the improving US outlook — while waiting for the recovery to pick up. OPEC+ heavyweights are removing barrels to prop up the market，its flagship Urals crude has breached a price cap set by the Group of Seven, a possible economic win for Moscow.

Prices:

WTI for August delivery settled $1.14 higher to $76.89 a barrel.

Brent for September settlement rose $1.25 to close at $81.36 a barrel.