据油价网2023年8月23日报道，5位华尔街分析师预测，由于供应的不确定性，沙特阿拉伯可能会连续第3个月将其100万桶/天的自愿减产协议延长到10月份。最初的减产措施似乎奏效了，油价在过去一个月上涨了约15%，达到每桶86美元左右。

然而，随着库存收紧，油价逐渐上涨的趋势在过去一周发生逆转，交易商们再次担心疲弱经济数据，以及即将举行的杰克森霍尔研讨会（Jackson Hole symposium：全球央行会议，因自1978年起每年8月下旬在怀俄明州度假小镇Jackson Hole举行的全球央行会议而得名）。目前布伦特原油价格为每桶82.71美元，对沙特阿拉伯来说这个油价太低了，因为沙特阿拉伯需要每桶100美元的油价来平衡其账目，这又给了沙特阿拉伯保持供应紧张的另一个动力。

咨询公司Energy Aspects的分析师Richard Bronze告诉路透社：“我们认为沙特阿拉伯至少会将减产协议全面延长到10月份。在今年上半年石油市场疲软之后，沙特阿拉伯正在采取谨慎的态度，希望在开始取消额外的自愿减产之前，看到全球库存大幅下降?！?/p>

与此同时，经纪商PVM Oil的约翰·埃文斯和盛宝银行的奥利·汉森都预测，伊拉克库尔德地区可能恢复石油生产，这可能会促使沙特阿拉伯暂时停止向市场供应更多石油。

尽管如此，全球石油市场预计将逐渐收紧，随着时间的推移，这应该会提振油价。总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA)预测，今年下半年全球石油短缺将达到每天170万桶左右。

渣打银行的大宗商品专家预测，8月份全球石油市场将出现每天281万桶的供应缺口；9月份为243万桶/天，11月和12月超过200万桶/天。分析师还预测，到今年年底前，全球石油库存将减少3.1亿桶，2024年第一季度将再减少9400万桶，从而推高油价。据专家预测，布伦特原油价格将在今年第四季度攀升至每桶93美元。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Likely To Extend Production Cuts To October

Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1 million-barrel oil supply cut for the third consecutive month into October amid uncertainty about supply, five Wall Street analysts have predicted. The initial cuts appear to have worked, with oil prices climbing about 15% in the past month to about $86 a barrel. 

However, the gradual rise in oil prices as inventory tightened has reversed over the past week with traders worrying again about weak economic data coming from China as well as the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. Current Brent prices of $82.71 is too low for Saudi Arabia since it needs $100-a-barrel crude to balance its books, giving it another incentive to keep supplies tight.

"We think Saudi Arabia will extend the cut in full at least through October. The kingdom is adopting a cautious approach after the weakness in oil markets over the first half of the year and will want to see global inventories significantly decline before starting to unwind the additional voluntary cuts," Richard Bronze, analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, has told Reuters.

Meanwhile, brokerage PVM Oil's John Evans and Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, have both predicted that a possible resumption of oil production from Iraq's Kurdistan region may prompt the Saudis to withhold additional supplies to the market for now.

Nevertheless, oil markets are expected to gradually tighten, which should boost prices as the months roll on. The International Energy Agency(IEA) in Paris has predicted an oil shortage of about 1.7 million barrels a day during the second half of the year. 

Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that global oil markets will register a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August; 2.43mb/d in September and more than 2mb/d in November and December. The analysts have also projected that global inventories will fall by 310mb by end-2023 and another 94mb in the first quarter of 2024 thus pushing oil prices higher. According to the experts, Brent prices will climb to $93/bbl in the fourth quarter.